A general mixture loss function to optimize a personalized predictive model

Tatiana Krikella, Joel A Dubin · 2026

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Description

Precision medicine builds a prediction model for one patient from a crowd of similar patients, but how large should the crowd be? Tatiana Krikella and Joel Dubin propose a loss function that tunes that choice directly. The user picks which virtues count, discrimination, calibration, or a blend, and the method searches crowd sizes for the best joint score.

Simulations showed the useful search range runs from twenty to seventy percent of the training data. The optimal size moved with the chosen virtues, proving the setting is not one-size-fits-all. Earlier findings about crowd size and accuracy held up under the new method. The authors aim for personal prediction that is both flexible and cheap to compute.

Catalog record

CREATORTatiana Krikella, Joel A Dubin
YEAR2026
COLLECTIONPAPERS
FORMATTXT
FILE SIZE84 KB
VERSION1.0
LICENSECC BY 4.0
RIGHTSCC BY
SOURCEEurope PMC

Source: https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC13688343

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