Projected climate change could expand the geographical suitability of Acacia dealbata into new temperate areas

Description

Pedro Lago-González, Carolina Acuña-Alonso, and Xana Álvarez model where an invasive Australian tree, Acacia dealbata, could spread as the climate changes, focusing on overlap with Europe's common oak forests. The acacia was planted abroad for ornament and timber and now invades several regions, helped by toughness after fire and drought. Knowing its future climate niche guides early control.

The team built maximum entropy distribution models, a standard tool that learns a species' climate preferences from known locations, for past, present, and future conditions. The models performed with great accuracy, and temperature variables did most of the explaining. Europe emerged as the main hotspot where the acacia's suitable climate overlaps oak forest. Both species share large suitable areas worldwide, yet their climate niches do not fully coincide, which leaves room for the invader to expand into new temperate ground. The authors offer the maps for targeting surveillance.

Catalog record

Source: https://europepmc.org/article/MED/PMC13623992