Forecasting Kazakhstan’s regional population aged 6–17 years to 2030: cohort validation and uncertainty analysis
Nurlan Jainakbayev, Lyazat Orakbay, Karlygash Zhubanysheva, Madina Kamalieva, Zulfiya Elzhanova, Nurlan Baisynov, Firuza Numanova · 2026
Read Forecasting Kazakhstan’s regional population aged 6–17 years to 2030: cohort validation and uncertainty analysis by Nurlan Jainakbayev, Lyazat Orakbay, Karlygash Zhubanysheva, Madina Kamalieva, Zulfiya Elzhanova, Nurlan Baisynov, Firuza Numanova (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13590556.txt.
Description
Nurlan Jainakbayev and six co-authors published a 2026 demographic study forecasting how many six to seventeen year olds each region of Kazakhstan will have by 2030. Planners use such counts as denominators for education and school health planning. Which forecasting method deserves trust was the open question.
Working with official data from 2015 to 2025 for all twenty territorial units, split by sex, locality, and single year of age, the team raced three models against each other. A cohort model that ages children year by year beat the standard time series rivals in seventeen of twenty regions on rolling one step tests. Bootstrap resampling mapped the uncertainty around its transitions. The study also stress tested migration effects, giving planners both a forecast and its error bars.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Nurlan Jainakbayev, Lyazat Orakbay, Karlygash Zhubanysheva, Madina Kamalieva, Zulfiya Elzhanova, Nurlan Baisynov, Firuza Numanova |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 27 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |