Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India
Yacob Sophia, Mathew Koll Roxy, Surendranath Bindu Vaisakh, Pallipurathu Raghunathan Nair Sreelakshmi, Thekkumkara Surendran Anish, Pillaveetil Sathyadas Indu · 2026
Read Climate Informed Dengue Prediction and Future Risk Under a Changing Monsoon Climate in Kerala, India by Yacob Sophia, Mathew Koll Roxy, Surendranath Bindu Vaisakh, Pallipurathu Raghunathan Nair Sreelakshmi, Thekkumkara Surendran Anish, Pillaveetil Sathyadas Indu (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13580351.txt.
Description
Yacob Sophia and co-authors link climate to dengue prediction in Kerala, India, in a 2026 study. Dengue has grown into a major public health threat across India. Fourteen years of climate and case data anchor the analysis. Kerala is a known hotspot in the south.
Cases rise in May and peak in the southwest monsoon months. Temperature, rainfall phases, humidity, and Pacific Ocean patterns all predict incidence. Machine learning models were trained to capture nonlinear links. One boosting model performed best on accuracy measures. Warm pre-monsoon heat with moderate humidity favored outbreaks. Moderate monsoon rainfall also aligned with high incidence. Pacific warming patterns raised risk with about three months of lead time. Future climate simulations extend the risk outlook. The authors offer a forecast base for early warning systems.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Yacob Sophia, Mathew Koll Roxy, Surendranath Bindu Vaisakh, Pallipurathu Raghunathan Nair Sreelakshmi, Thekkumkara Surendran Anish, Pillaveetil Sathyadas Indu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 61 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |