Multisource Early Warning Framework Integrating Regional Pathogen Surveillance and Baidu Index Data for Respiratory Infectious Disease Prediction in Beijing: Retrospective Time-Series Modeling Study
Yang Liu, Yanlin Gao, Jing Du, Yunping Shi, Xiao Hu, Gang Li, Amaryllis Mavragani · 2026
Read Multisource Early Warning Framework Integrating Regional Pathogen Surveillance and Baidu Index Data for Respiratory Infectious Disease Prediction in Beijing: Retrospective Time-Series Modeling Study by Yang Liu, Yanlin Gao, Jing Du, Yunping Shi, Xiao Hu, Gang Li, Amaryllis Mavragani (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13568688.txt.
Description
Yang Liu and six colleagues published a modelling study in two thousand twenty-six on early warning for respiratory infections in Beijing. Case reports arrive late, so lab pathogen data and internet searches may flag surges sooner. Their added value for short-term city forecasts was unclear.
Weekly data from two thousand twenty-three to two thousand twenty-five combined Beijing case counts, pathogen surveillance from thirty-one provinces, and Baidu search indexes. Ten sparse regression models were compared on one-week-ahead prediction, using time-ordered testing and rolling validation. Indicators were grouped by region and lagged up to four weeks. The authors frame the study as an exploratory first validation of multisource warning.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Yang Liu, Yanlin Gao, Jing Du, Yunping Shi, Xiao Hu, Gang Li, Amaryllis Mavragani |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 63 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |