Prediction-model development and temporal validation for six-month cancer-specific mortality in de novo metastatic gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma: a SEER-based study
Lunjian Xia, Ziao Wang, Xiaoqian Guo, Xueting Men, Weikun Fan, Qifeng Lu · 2026
Read Prediction-model development and temporal validation for six-month cancer-specific mortality in de novo metastatic gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma: a SEER-based study by Lunjian Xia, Ziao Wang, Xiaoqian Guo, Xueting Men, Weikun Fan, Qifeng Lu (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/PMC13546561.txt.
Description
Lunjian Xia and colleagues developed in 2026 a model that predicts which patients with newly metastatic cancer of the gastroesophageal junction will die of their cancer within six months. That early window shapes decisions about tolerating first-line treatment and starting palliative conversations. Records came from a national registry and covered 6,564 patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2021, most of them men with an average age of 64.
Six machine learning approaches were compared, and a gradient boosting model won out. Tested on patients from later years, it sorted people into low, medium, and high risk groups whose six-month death rates were about 20, 32, and 80 percent. The authors also show which factors drive each prediction, keeping the model interpretable for clinicians.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Lunjian Xia, Ziao Wang, Xiaoqian Guo, Xueting Men, Weikun Fan, Qifeng Lu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 41931 |
| LICENSE | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |