A network-based approach to model volcanic repose durations
Elia Altimani, Catherine Annen, Rémy Cazabet · 2026
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Description
Elia Altimani, Catherine Annen, and Rémy Cazabet model in 2026 why volcanoes wait so unpredictably between eruptions. Quiet intervals, called repose times, follow distributions too broad for simple clockwork models, hinting that magma systems organize themselves into critical states. An earlier simulation sent magma up a single vertical pipe and matched eruption lengths well, yet said nothing about the waits.
Rebuilding that pipe as a branching tree changed the picture completely. The tree version kept the realistic spread of eruption durations while also producing the broad, heavy-tailed spread of repose times seen worldwide. Branching matters because much rising magma never reaches the surface, stalling or freezing in side channels. Plumbing geometry, the authors conclude, is not decoration; it shapes the statistics forecasters rely on.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Elia Altimani, Catherine Annen, Rémy Cazabet |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 71049 |
| LICENSE | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |