Pre-delivery prediction of vaginal delivery in late-onset foetal growth restriction: development and internal validation of a model with decision curve analysis and bedside calculator
Manal Massalha, Misgav Rottenstreich, Bryon DeFrance, Kinga Malinowski, Jon F. Barrett, Eran Ashwal · 2026
Read Pre-delivery prediction of vaginal delivery in late-onset foetal growth restriction: development and internal validation of a model with decision curve analysis and bedside calculator by Manal Massalha, Misgav Rottenstreich, Bryon DeFrance, Kinga Malinowski, Jon F. Barrett, Eran Ashwal (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13473075.txt.
Description
Massalha and co-authors built a bedside tool estimating whether a woman carrying a growth-restricted baby can deliver vaginally, sparing an unneeded caesarean. Their 2026 model came from 477 single-baby pregnancies with late-onset fetal growth restriction managed at one large center from 2017 to 2024, all attempting labor with no prior caesarean.
Most succeeded: 378 women, or 79.2% of the cohort, delivered vaginally despite intrapartum caesarean rates of 20 to 40% typical for this condition. Four factors lowered the odds on their own, led by first-time motherhood at an odds ratio of 0.22 against women who had given birth before, plus higher pre-pregnancy body mass index, an abnormal cerebroplacental ratio, and pre-existing diabetes. Decision-curve analysis showed the model helps once predicted chances pass a 55% threshold.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Manal Massalha, Misgav Rottenstreich, Bryon DeFrance, Kinga Malinowski, Jon F. Barrett, Eran Ashwal |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 54 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |