Intensification of summer mesoscale convective systems in East China under global warming
Yutong Lu, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Juan Fang, Sinan Gu, Jianping Tang, Deliang Chen · 2026
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Description
Yutong Lu and six colleagues modelled in 2026 how large storm systems over East China may change as the planet warms. Mesoscale convective systems, broad clusters of thunderstorms, drive much of the region's extreme rain and flood risk, yet coarse climate models handle them poorly and long-term projections have been scarce. The team used high-resolution simulations that allow storms to form directly, running 22 summers under a high-emissions future with a pseudo-global warming method.
Future storms rained harder and spread their convective cores wider, with rain from rising air intensifying more than rain from layered cloud. Greater heat energy and moisture in the air largely explained the stronger peak rainfall, while changing wind shear steered the pattern. The product of total moisture and upward air speed emerged as a useful predictor of peak rain, and for planners the message is a rising threat of intense downpours.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Yutong Lu, John H. Marsham, Douglas J. Parker, Juan Fang, Sinan Gu, Jianping Tang, Deliang Chen |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 77 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |