An ARIMAX model integrating Baidu index for improved hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence prediction
Zeshan Chen, Yijue Qin · 2026
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Description
Zeshan Chen and Yijue Qin add web search counts to a time model to forecast hand foot and mouth disease in China, in work from 2026. Web counts are vast, live, and may flag spread before case files land. Case files span more than a decade from the state health office.
Five search words tracked case counts with a tight fit and no time lag. A joint search score fed the time model in place of past counts alone. Fault sizes fell by near half on most grades. Peak months still fell in late spring each year. The model can serve as an early warn tool.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Zeshan Chen, Yijue Qin |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 32 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |