Climate and socioeconomic factors drive heterogeneous dengue risk escalation in the Chinese population
Xu Guang, Yifei He, Mengjie Geng, Meifang Liu, Jia Wan, Dongfeng Kong, Zhen Zhang, Lanbin Xiang, Liangqiang Lin, Rongxin He, Ning Zhang, Felipe Arley Costa Pessoa, Claudia Maria Ríos Velasquez, Carolina Mercedes Laurent Singh, Pritesh Lalwani, Jie Huang, Haidong Wang, Jue Liu, Bin Zhu · 2026
Read Climate and socioeconomic factors drive heterogeneous dengue risk escalation in the Chinese population by Xu Guang, Yifei He, Mengjie Geng, Meifang Liu, Jia Wan, Dongfeng Kong, Zhen Zhang, Lanbin Xiang, Liangqiang Lin, Rongxin He, Ning Zhang, Felipe Arley Costa Pessoa, Claudia Maria Ríos Velasquez, Carolina Mercedes Laurent Singh, Pritesh Lalwani, Jie Huang, Haidong Wang, Jue Liu, Bin Zhu (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13342516.txt.
Description
Xu Guang and co-authors forecast how dengue fever risk will spread across China under climate change in this 2026 paper. Dengue rides mosquitoes whose range warmth controls, and fast urban growth adds exposure. The team built an explainable AI model to map hazard now and under future climate paths.
The coldest month's minimum temperature drove the hazard most, contributing over a quarter of the signal. Crowding and urbanization added smaller pushes. High-risk clusters now sit in the southwest and in megacities. By 2050 and 2100 the hazard creeps north, growing fastest in the southwest and southeast, with the dry northwest seeing outsized proportional rises. Under the heaviest emissions path, total risk rose about six percent by mid-century and eight percent by 2100. The authors call for joined-up surveillance that treats climate, cities, and health as one problem.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Xu Guang, Yifei He, Mengjie Geng, Meifang Liu, Jia Wan, Dongfeng Kong, Zhen Zhang, Lanbin Xiang, Liangqiang Lin, Rongxin He, Ning Zhang, Felipe Arley Costa Pessoa, Claudia Maria Ríos Velasquez, Carolina Mercedes Laurent Singh, Pritesh Lalwani, Jie Huang, Haidong Wang, Jue Liu, Bin Zhu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 65 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |