Risk score for esophageal and gastric cancer in the over 50-year-old population based on self-reported information –the RISC-GAP project
Timo Schmitz, Julia Reizner, Sha Sha, Ben Schöttker, Hermann Brenner, David Roser, Helmut Messmann, Christa Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen · 2026
Read Risk score for esophageal and gastric cancer in the over 50-year-old population based on self-reported information –the RISC-GAP project by Timo Schmitz, Julia Reizner, Sha Sha, Ben Schöttker, Hermann Brenner, David Roser, Helmut Messmann, Christa Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/PMC13312655.txt.
Description
Timo Schmitz and colleagues build, in a 2026 study, a simple risk score to flag people over 50 at elevated risk of esophageal or gastric cancer. The score uses only questions people can answer themselves. In regions where these cancers are uncommon, screening everyone is wasteful, so a self-report score could serve as the first filter toward risk-adapted screening within the RISC-GAP project.
The team worked with 375,280 UK Biobank participants aged 50 and older and let penalized survival models pick from lifestyle, medical, and diet candidates. Eight items survived: sex, age, smoking, drinking, body mass index, esophagitis history, acid inhibitor use, and past stomach or esophagus surgery. Cross-validation gave discrimination of 0.740 for five-year risk and 0.724 for ten-year risk. About 6 percent of people crossed the high-risk line of 1 percent ten-year risk.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Timo Schmitz, Julia Reizner, Sha Sha, Ben Schöttker, Hermann Brenner, David Roser, Helmut Messmann, Christa Meisinger, Jakob Linseisen |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 45150 |
| LICENSE | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |