Quantifying Epidemiological Risk Transitions of COVID-19 in the Brazilian State of Ceará (2020–2023): A Generalized Linear Modeling Approach
Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Carlos Mendes Tavares, Yasmin Esther Barreto, Alexandre Castelo Branco Araujo, Rosalina Semedo de Andrade, Luiz Carlos de Abreu · 2026
Read Quantifying Epidemiological Risk Transitions of COVID-19 in the Brazilian State of Ceará (2020–2023): A Generalized Linear Modeling Approach by Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Carlos Mendes Tavares, Yasmin Esther Barreto, Alexandre Castelo Branco Araujo, Rosalina Semedo de Andrade, Luiz Carlos de Abreu (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/PMC13298685.txt.
Description
COVID-19 in Brazil's Ceará state kept spreading even as it grew far less deadly, quantify Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti and co-authors in a 2026 modeling study. Using official surveillance data from 2020 to 2023, they fitted generalized linear models with the pandemic's first year as the baseline.
Infection risk stayed elevated through 2022, with a rate ratio of 1.42, while mortality risk fell 68% by 2022 and 99% by 2023. Fatality risk among cases dropped steadily, reaching a 91% reduction in 2023. The authors read the split as a transition toward lower severity and stress resilient health systems and fair vaccine access.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti, Carlos Mendes Tavares, Yasmin Esther Barreto, Alexandre Castelo Branco Araujo, Rosalina Semedo de Andrade, Luiz Carlos de Abreu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 24524 |
| LICENSE | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |