Cyber Defense Effectiveness Evaluation for ICS Under Uncertainty: A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach with Information Entropy
Rongbao Kang, Zhiyong Zhang, Xiao Zhang, Jianfeng Chen, Ruoyu Xu, Yongdong Zhang, Zhihong Rao · 2026
Read Cyber Defense Effectiveness Evaluation for ICS Under Uncertainty: A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach with Information Entropy by Rongbao Kang, Zhiyong Zhang, Xiao Zhang, Jianfeng Chen, Ruoyu Xu, Yongdong Zhang, Zhihong Rao (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-13298130.txt.
Description
Rongbao Kang and others propose a method for judging cyber defence plans in factory control systems before deployment, in a 2026 study. Defenders face limited visibility, unknown attacker plans, and random state changes that spread between connected devices. Their dynamic Bayesian network models four uncertainty sources explicitly.
Expected effectiveness is paired with information entropy so results and prediction uncertainty are judged side by side. A substation automation case study, plus ablation tests removing parts of the model, showed the method could separate plans and stay stable under moderate noise in its probability tables. The tests also revealed coupling between knowledge-based and random uncertainty.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Rongbao Kang, Zhiyong Zhang, Xiao Zhang, Jianfeng Chen, Ruoyu Xu, Yongdong Zhang, Zhihong Rao |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 145 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |