Unified climate factors predict influenza outbreak seasonality across tropical and temperate regions
Aleksandra R Stamper, Wenchang Yang, Caroline E Wagner, Ayesha S Mahmud, Rachel E Baker · 2026
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Description
Aleksandra R. Stamper is lead author of a 2026 journal article testing whether one set of climate factors can explain influenza timing in both temperate and tropical regions. Temperate areas get sharp winter flu peaks, while tropical areas often see lower, year-round activity, sometimes with two peaks a year.
The team built a new surveillance data set across North and South America and fitted a standard disease-spread model driven by local climate at 81 sites. A combined, nonlinear effect of specific humidity and temperature explained outbreak seasonality across both climate types. Simulating climate change, temperate peak sizes may fall while tropical outbreak intensity could rise, they project.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Aleksandra R Stamper, Wenchang Yang, Caroline E Wagner, Ayesha S Mahmud, Rachel E Baker |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 34500 |
| LICENSE | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |