The cost-effectiveness of inventory reserves for preventing drug shortages in Germany: a health-economic evaluation
Afschin Gandjour · 2026
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Description
Gandjour evaluated Germany's drug stockpiling law in this 2026 Scientific Reports health-economics study. A recent legal change made six-month inventory reserves the government's main defense against medicine shortages. Working from the German social health insurance perspective, the author examined a public database of nearly two thousand eight hundred recorded shortages since 2012. The author modeled how many a reserve of a given length could have prevented.
A six-month reserve would have prevented roughly seventy percent of shortages. Each extra month prevented fewer additional shortages, so value for money thinned as stockpiles lengthened, with an estimated cost-effective ceiling near two and a half years under stated assumptions. The author concludes the six-month mandate is very likely cost-effective, while flagging warehouse practices as a key uncertainty.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Afschin Gandjour |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 55 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |