A Tool for Predicting Disability Pension Applications in the Finnish Public Sector: Sickness Absences as Early Indicators of Declining Work Ability
Petra Sohlman · 2026
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Description
Petra Sohlman offers a 2026 register-based tool for predicting which Finnish public sector employees will apply for a disability pension. Early exit from work carries heavy costs for individuals and the pension system. The model uses an unusually rich dataset that includes even short sickness absences, which registers usually miss.
Age, occupation, and accumulated sickness days all raised application risk. Many short spells mattered too, not only long absences. Approaching retirement age and higher earnings lowered risk. The model sorted employee groups accurately and transparently. Public employers in Finland already use its profiles to target early support. Sohlman presents pension application, not approval, as the outcome, since applications themselves signal failing work ability.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Petra Sohlman |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 48 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |