Projecting tuberculosis control progress in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil, 2001–2035: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis
José Mário Nunes da Silva, Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano, Mauro Niskier Sanchez, Walter Massa Ramalho · 2025
Read Projecting tuberculosis control progress in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas of Brazil, 2001–2035: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis by José Mário Nunes da Silva, Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano, Mauro Niskier Sanchez, Walter Massa Ramalho (2025) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-12720469.txt.
Description
José Mário Nunes da Silva, Fredi Diaz-Quijano, Mauro Sanchez, and Walter Ramalho project tuberculosis trends in Brazil to 2035. Their 2025 study splits the country into metro and non-metro areas. Lung tuberculosis fell over two decades, yet the disease stays a major public health burden.
Case reports from 2001 to 2020 feed trend, age-period-cohort, and breakdown analyses. Yearly rates fell by about two and a half percent in both area types. Yet total metro cases rose, driven mainly by population growth, with aging adding a smaller share. Bayesian models then project the burden forward by sex and area. The split view helps planners see where raw case counts may grow even as rates fall.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | José Mário Nunes da Silva, Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano, Mauro Niskier Sanchez, Walter Massa Ramalho |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2025 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 52 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |