A probabilistic GIS-based framework for urban flood risk assessment in Chengdu metro network
Qiuping Li, Ting Ni, Lei Li, Hao Wen, Jiuping Xu · 2025
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Description
Metro networks flood easily, yet most flood risk studies use fixed expert weights that hide uncertainty. The five authors build a probabilistic GIS-based framework that pairs the analytic hierarchy process with a Monte Carlo extension. The extension measures uncertainty in expert judgment through beta-PERT simulations and uses a wide indicator set covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, including passenger flow and lines still under construction.
Applied to the Chengdu metro, the framework maps risk spreading out from a high-risk center: the urban core is most vulnerable despite only moderate hazard. The Monte Carlo version flags more high-risk area than the plain version and gives weight distributions that blunt subjective bias. Checks against past flood events support its reliability. The authors offer the framework as a transferable way to harden metro networks as climate change and urbanization speed up.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Qiuping Li, Ting Ni, Lei Li, Hao Wen, Jiuping Xu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2025 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 65 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |