Integrated Disease Chronicity Modeling to Map Longitudinal Biomarker Relationships in Alzheimer’s Disease

Description

Seth Robey, Ka Lai Yee, and Julie A Stone build a mathematical model that lines up many Alzheimer's biomarkers on one shared disease clock. The clock starts when amyloid, the first hallmark protein, turns positive. The markers do not move in step, so a shared clock helps trials pick the right patients. Their 2025 model was trained on records from ADNI, a large shared database in the United States.

Training used 831 adults who were amyloid positive, with scan and test scores over time. The model placed scans for both hallmark proteins and three cognitive test scores on the shared clock. It recovered the order of disease stages with no outside guide. When fed only baseline data for 76 new adults, it matched their real course two to seven years later. The authors see it as a tool for trial selection and personal forecasts.

Catalog record

Source: https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC11715649