Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model
Fan Jiang, Zhentao Fu, Jie Chu, Jie Ren, Chunxiao Xu, Xiaohui Xu, Xiaolei Guo, Zilong Lu, Aiqiang Xu · 2024
Read Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model by Fan Jiang, Zhentao Fu, Jie Chu, Jie Ren, Chunxiao Xu, Xiaohui Xu, Xiaolei Guo, Zilong Lu, Aiqiang Xu (2024) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-11652362.txt.
Description
Fan Jiang and co-authors trace lung cancer trends in Shandong Province, China, and forecast the burden through 2030. Their data come from the province's cancer registries for the years 2012 to 2023. Knowing where cases and deaths are heading helps officials plan control efforts.
Over the study years, the overall rate of new cases held roughly steady after adjusting for age. Rates fell in men but rose in women. Death rates dropped for both sexes and in both city and country areas. The team's model projects that new-case rates will climb again by 2030, driven by women and urban areas. Death rates should stay broadly stable overall, rising slightly in cities while easing in rural areas. The authors call for stronger tobacco control, wider public education, and broader screening. They single out the rising trend among women as a pattern that prevention work must address.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Fan Jiang, Zhentao Fu, Jie Chu, Jie Ren, Chunxiao Xu, Xiaohui Xu, Xiaolei Guo, Zilong Lu, Aiqiang Xu |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2024 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 33 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |