Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations
Kai Kornhuber, Samuel Bartusek, Richard Seager, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Mingfang Ting · 2024
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Description
Kai Kornhuber and co-authors published this study in 2024. It shows that regional heatwaves are outrunning what climate models predict. Several recent records raised doubts about model readiness. The team compared measured extreme heat trends with model output across the world's land. In a number of regions, the hot tail of temperatures is widening much faster than models show, even after allowing for general summer warming.
Globally, models understate strong upward trends in the hottest days by a factor of four. They also miss some strong downward trends, though by less. Mild trends, by contrast, are reproduced well. The blind spot sits at the extremes, exactly where harm concentrates. The authors call for better grasp of what drives extreme heat. They also urge faster emission cuts, since surprises are arriving ahead of schedule.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Kai Kornhuber, Samuel Bartusek, Richard Seager, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Mingfang Ting |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2024 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 37 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |