Exponential adoption of battery electric cars
Felix Jung, Malte Schröder, Marc Timme · 2023
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Description
Felix Jung, Malte Schröder, and Marc Timme measure how fast battery electric cars are spreading, and find a simple pattern: growth is exponential almost everywhere. Looking at passenger cars in 17 countries, Europe, and the world, they fit the adoption curves and project them forward. The fits suggest system-wide adoption far sooner than most economic studies have proposed.
On their central estimate, most European passenger cars would be electric by about 2031. The timing barely moved when they changed the model details. Fleet sizes today differ widely between regions, yet doubling times cluster near 15 months almost everywhere. The authors warn that such speed carries large consequences for industry and infrastructure.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Felix Jung, Malte Schröder, Marc Timme |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2023 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 46 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |