The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years
Surendra P. Rauniyar, Pandora Hope, Scott B. Power, Michael Grose, David Jones · 2023
Read The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years by Surendra P. Rauniyar, Pandora Hope, Scott B. Power, Michael Grose, David Jones (2023) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/pmc-10703814.txt.
Description
Surendra Rauniyar and co-authors separate bad luck from climate forcing in southwest Australia's vanishing wet winters. The region's cool-season rain fell by about a fifth over two recent decades against the early twentieth century, and very wet years vanished entirely. Their 2023 study runs large suites of climate models to weigh outside forcing against the climate's own swings.
Standard model sets attribute roughly two fifths of the decline to external forcing. But the observed drop sits outside almost every simulated range, which suggests that share is understated. One large ensemble that does reproduce the drying puts the forced share nearer two thirds. Most models dry the region further this century even under strong emissions cuts. Water planners get a sobering split between chance and trend.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Surendra P. Rauniyar, Pandora Hope, Scott B. Power, Michael Grose, David Jones |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2023 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 54 KB |
| VERSION | 1.0 |
| LICENSE | CC BY 4.0 |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | Europe PMC |