Modelling Hepatitis B virus related hospital discharges in Spain: ARIMAX based liver disease forecasting tool for hospital workload and mortality progression
Lesly Acosta, Núria Soldevila, Núria Torner, Ana Avellón, Victoria Hernando, Eva Borràs, Ana Martínez, Carles Pericas · 2026
Read Modelling Hepatitis B virus related hospital discharges in Spain: ARIMAX based liver disease forecasting tool for hospital workload and mortality progression by Lesly Acosta, Núria Soldevila, Núria Torner, Ana Avellón, Victoria Hernando, Eva Borràs, Ana Martínez, Carles Pericas (2026) in the Tower of Babel, a free online library of public-domain works preserved in clean, searchable text. No sign-up. The full text is served as a plain-text file at a predictable URL, where text is present: https://antarctic-labs.com/tower-of-babel/plos-pone-0329751.txt.
Description
Lesly Acosta and colleagues built a forecasting model for Spanish hospital workload from chronic hepatitis B and its worst outcomes, liver cirrhosis and liver cancer. The virus smolders for years before these complications land people in hospital, so planners need warning of how many beds the disease will claim. The team fed monthly hospital discharge records from two thousand five to twenty twenty-one into seasonal time-series models.
Nearly seven thousand hepatitis B related discharges appeared in the records, more from liver cancer than cirrhosis, and most patients were men around sixty. The best models were chosen on fit and forecast accuracy, then used to project twenty twenty-two. A tested forecasting tool of this kind lets hospital managers staff liver wards ahead of the curve instead of reacting month by month.
Catalog record
| CREATOR | Lesly Acosta, Núria Soldevila, Núria Torner, Ana Avellón, Victoria Hernando, Eva Borràs, Ana Martínez, Carles Pericas |
|---|---|
| YEAR | 2026 |
| COLLECTION | PAPERS |
| FORMAT | TXT |
| FILE SIZE | 25203 |
| LICENSE | CC_BY |
| RIGHTS | CC BY |
| SOURCE | PLOS |